According to the local union president, the mean gross income of plumbers in the Salt Lake City area follows a normal distribution with a mean of $48,000 and a population standard deviation of $2,000. A recent investigative reporter for KYAK TV found, for a sample of 49 plumbers, the mean gross income was $47,600. At the 0.05 significance level, is it reasonable to conclude that the mean income is not equal to $47,600? Determine the p value. State the Null and Alternate hypothesis: State the test statistic: State the Decision Rule: Show the calculation: What is the interpretation of the sample data? Show the P value

Answers

Answer 1

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

Given that:

population mean [tex]\mu[/tex] = 47600

population standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex] = 2000

sample size n = 49

Sample mean [tex]\over\ x[/tex] = 48000

Level of significance = 0.05

The null and the alternative hypothesis can be computed as follows;

[tex]H_0 : \mu = 47600 \\ \\ H_1 : \mu \neq 47600[/tex]

Using the table of standard normal distribution, the value of z that corresponds to the two-tailed probability 0.05 is 1.96. Thus, we will reject the null hypothesis if the value of the test statistics is less than -1.96 or more than 1.96.

The test statistics can be calculated by using the formula:

[tex]z= \dfrac{\overline X - \mu }{\dfrac{\sigma}{ \sqrt{n}}}[/tex]

[tex]z= \dfrac{ 48000-47600 }{\dfrac{2000}{ \sqrt{49}}}[/tex]

[tex]z= \dfrac{400 }{\dfrac{2000}{ 7}}[/tex]

[tex]z= 1.4[/tex]

Conclusion:

Since 1.4 is lesser  than 1.96 , we fail to reject the null hypothesis and  that there is insufficient information to conclude that the   mean gross income is not equal to $47600

The P-value is being calculate as follows:

P -value = 2P(Z>1.4)

P -value =  2 (1 - P(Z< 1.4)

P-value = 2 ( 1 - 0.91924)

P -value = 2 (0.08076 )

P -value = 0.16152


Related Questions

Relating a Polynomial Identity to Pythagorean Triples
In this activity you'll relate polynomial identities with Pythagorean triples. Answer the following questions
based on this triangle with side lengths x^2 – 1, 2x, and x^2 + 1.

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

Hello, please consider the following.

For x > 1, we can apply Pythagoras theorem as below.

[tex]\text{Let's estimate this sum of two squares.} \\\\(2x)^2+(x^2-1)^2=4x^2+x^4-2x^2+1=x^4+2x^2+1\\\\\text{Let's estimate this square, now.} \\\\(x^2+1)^2=x^4+2x^2+1\\\\\text{The two expressions are equal, meaning.} \\\\(2x)^2+(x^2-1)^2=(x^2+1)^2\\\\\text{Using Pythagoras' theorem, we can say that this is a right triangle.}[/tex]

Thank you

99 litres of gasoline oil is poured into a cylindrical drum of 60cm in diameter. How deep is the oil in the drum? ​

Answers

Answer:

  35 cm

Step-by-step explanation:

The volume of a cylinder is given by ...

  V = πr²h

We want to find h for the given volume and diameter. First, we must convert the given values to compatible units.

  1 L = 1000 cm³, so 99 L = 99,000 cm³

  60 cm diameter = 2 × 30 cm radius

So, we have ...

  99,000 cm³ = π(30 cm)²h

  99,000/(900π) cm = h ≈ 35.01 cm

The oil is 35 cm deep in the drum.

Suppose log subscript a x equals 3, log subscript a y equals 7, and log subscript a z equals short dash 2. Find the value of the following expression. log subscript a open parentheses fraction numerator x cubed y over denominator z to the power of 4 end fraction close parentheses

Answers

Answer:

24

Step-by-step explanation:

Given the following logarithmic expressions [tex]log_ax = 3, log_ay = 7, log_az = -2[/tex], we are to find the value of [tex]log_a(\frac{x^3y}{z^4} )[/tex]

[tex]from\ log_ax = 3, x = a^3\\\\from\ log_ay = 7,y = a^7\\\\from\ log_az = -2, z = a^{-2}[/tex]Substituting x = a³, y = a⁷ and z = a⁻² into the log function [tex]log_a(\frac{x^3y}{z^4} )[/tex] we will have;

[tex]= log_a(\frac{x^3y}{z^4} )\\\\= log_a(\dfrac{(a^3)^3*a^7}{(a^{-2})^4} )\\\\= log_a(\dfrac{a^9*a^7}{a^{-8}} )\\\\= log_a\dfrac{a^{16}}{a^{-8}} \\\\= log_aa^{16+8}\\\\= log_aa^{24}\\\\= 24log_aa\\\\= 24* 1\\\\= 24[/tex]

Hence, the value of the logarithm expression is 24

HELP ASAP ROCKY!!! will get branliest.​

Answers

Answer:

work pictured and shown

Answer:

Last one

Step-by-step explanation:

● [ ( 3^2 × 5^0) / 4 ]^2

5^0 is 1 since any number that has a null power is equal to 1.

●[ (3^2 ×1 ) / 4 ]^2

● (9/4)^2

● 81 / 16

Is {(4,2),(4,-2),(9,3),(9,-3)} a function

Answers

Answer:

  no

Step-by-step explanation:

If any x-value is repeated, the relation is not a function. Both x=4 and x=9 are repeated values, so this relation is not a function.

602/100 into a decimal describe plz

Answers

Answer:

6.02

six point zero two

Step-by-step explanation:

Answer:

602 / 100= 6,02

Step-by-step explanation:

602 to divide 100 = 6,02

Find the odds in favor and the odds against a randomly selected person from Country X, age 25 and over, with the stated amount of education. four years (or more) of college

Answers

Answer:

25 : 63 and 63 : 25

Step-by-step explanation:

This is a complete question

The table shows the educational attainment of the population of Country X, ages 25 and over. Use the data in the table, expressed in millions, to solve the problem. of 10 questions ge 1: Ages 25 and Over, in Miltions 4 Years igh College 4 Years High School (Less than College School Only 4years) Cor Moce) Total Male 29 19 25 89 Female 11 28 23 Total 2 57 42 50 [176 Find the odds in favor and the odds against a randomty selected person from Country X.age 25 and over, with the stated amount of education. four years (or more) of college 21:67, 67:21 63:88, 88:63 25:63, 63:25 25:88, 88:25

According to the question, the relevant data provided in the question for the solution is as follows

Four years or more of college

Number of students = 50

Total = 176 students

Number of students does not belong = 126

So odds in favor is

= 50 : 126

= 25 : 63

And automatically out against the favor is 63 : 25

Claire has to go to the movie theater the movie starts at 4:15 pm it is a 25min walk to the theater from her home what time dose the have to leave the house to get there on time

Answers

Answer:

claire has to leave at 3:50 from her house.

Answer:

She needs to leave by 3:50 to get there on time.

Step-by-step explanation:

4:15 - 0:25 = 3:50.

Can I have help with 43 and 44 I need to see how to do them thanks.

Answers

Answer:

see explanation

Step-by-step explanation:

(43)

3[tex]x^{5}[/tex] - 75x³ ← factor out 3x³ from each term

= 3x³(x² - 25) ← this is a difference of squares and factors in general as

a² - b² = (a - b)(a + b) , thus

x² - 25 = x² - 5² = (x - 5)(x + 5)

Thus

3[tex]x^{5}[/tex] - 75x³ = 3x³(x - 5)(x + 5)

(44)

81c² + 72c + 16 ← is a perfect square of the form

(ac + b)² = a²c² + 2abc + b²

Compare coefficients of like terms

a² = 81 ⇒ a = [tex]\sqrt{81}[/tex] = 9

b² = 16 ⇒ b = [tex]\sqrt{16}[/tex] = 4

and 2ab = 2 × 9 × 4 = 72

Thus

81c² + 72c + 16 = (9c + 4)²

1. 3x^5 -75x³

=3x³(x²-25)

=3x³(x²-5²)

=3x³(x-5)(x+5)

2. 81c²+72c+16

=81c²+36c+36c+16

=9c(9c+4)+4(9c+4)

=(9c+4)(9c+4)

=(9c+4)²

20 points!
Please help.

Answers

Man this is a hard one!

BRAINLIST AND A THANK YOU AND 5 stars WILL BE REWARDED PLS ANSER

Answers

Answer:

The first picture's answer would be (6, 21)

Step-by-step explanation:

You have to find the points on the 8th and the 9th day, and then you would add them together, and then divide by two finding the average, which would be 24 and 18, so when added, you get 42, divided by 2 you get 21. You look on the graph for the point with 21, and you find it is on 6.

Please answer this correctly without making mistakes

Answers

Answer:

1/8

Step-by-step explanation:

3/8-1/8-1/8=1/8

What is the 25th term in the following arithmetic sequence? -7, -2, 3, 8, ...

Answers

Answer:

108.

Step-by-step explanation:

-7, -2, 3, 8 is an arithmetic sequence with a1 (first term) = -7 and common difference (d)  = 5.

The 24th term = a1 + (24 - 1)d

=  -7 + 23 * 5

= -7 + 115

= 108.

What is the domain of f(x)=2/5x+6​

Answers

Answer:

Look at that picture

Step-by-step explanation:

What's the solution of the following linear system? 5x + 2y = 9 –5x – 2y = 3

Answers

━━━━━━━☆☆━━━━━━━

▹ Answer

(-39/35, 9/7)

▹ Step-by-Step Explanation

5y + 2y = 9

-5x - 2y = 3

Solve the equation:

y = 9/7

-5x - 2y = 3

Substitute the value of y:

-5x - 2 * 9/7 = 3

x = -39/35

(x, y) = (-39/35, 9/7)

Hope this helps!

CloutAnswers ❁

━━━━━━━☆☆━━━━━━━

5x + 2y = 9-5x - 2y = 3

To solve this system by addition, we start by adding both of our equations together but notice that the x terms and the y terms cancel out.

This leaves us with 0 on the left side and on the right side,

9 + 13 = 12 so we are left with the equation 0 = 12.

Since 0 = 12 is a false statement, this means that

there is no solution to our system of equations.

For the following graph, state the polar coordinate with a positive r and positive q (in radians). Explain your steps as to how you determined the coordinate (in your own words). I'm looking for answers that involve π, not degrees for your angles. State the polar coordinate with (r, -q). Explain how you found the new angle. State the polar coordinate with (-r, q). Explain how you found the new angle. State the polar coordinate with (-r, -q). Explain how you found the new angle.

Answers

the graph has 12 segments so angle enclosed by each segment is [tex] {2\pi\over 12}=\frac{\pi}6[/tex]

anti-clockwise is taken as positive, so if you want positive q, you need to rotate 8 segments [tex] q=8\frac,{\pi}6=\frac{4\pi}3 [/tex] , and and 8 circles or units so r=8

and for a negative angle, you need to rotate clockwise

Which is 4 segments from the horizontal line. so [tex]q=-\frac{2\pi}3[/tex] and r will be same, 8 units.

[not sure about -r so I won't include it in answer]

Answer:

Points : ( 8, - 2π/3 ), ( - 8, π/3 ), ( - 8, - 5π/3 )

Step-by-step explanation:

For the first two cases, ( r, θ ) r would be > 0, where r is the directed distance from the pole, and theta is the directed angle from the positive x - axis.

So when r is positive, we can tell that this point is 8 units from the pole, so r is going to be 8 in either case,

( 8, 240° ) - because r is positive, theta would have to be an angle with which it's terminal side passes through this point. As you can see that would be 2 / 3rd of 90 degrees more than a 180 degree angle,or 60 + 180 = 240 degrees.

( 8, - 120° ) - now theta will be the negative side of 360 - 240, or in other words - 120

Now let's consider the second two cases, where r is < 0. Of course the point will still be 8 units from the pole. Again for r < 0 the point will lay on the ray pointing in the opposite direction of the terminal side of theta.

( - 8, 60° ) - theta will now be 2 / 3rd of 90 degrees, or 60 degrees, for - r. Respectively the remaining degrees will be negative, 360 - 60 = 300, - 300. Thus our second point for - r will be ( - 8, - 300° )

_________________________________

So we have the points ( 8, 240° ), ( 8, - 120° ), ( - 8, 60° ), and ( - 8, - 300° ). However we only want 3 cases, so we have points ( 8, - 120° ), ( - 8, 60° ), and ( - 8, - 300° ). Let's convert the degrees into radians,

Points : ( 8, - 2π/3 ), ( - 8, π/3 ), ( - 8, - 5π/3 )

16.50 and pays 20.00 in cash the change due is

Answers

Answer:

Change due is 3.50

Step-by-step explanation:

20.00-16.50 is 3.50

Answer: $3.50

Step-by-step explanation:

You subtract 20 from 16.50.

BRAINLIEST IF CORRECT!!! and 15 points solve for z -cz + 6z = tz + 83

Answers

Answer:

z = 83/( -c+6-t)

Step-by-step explanation:

-cz + 6z = tz + 83

Subtract tz from each side

-cz + 6z -tz= tz-tz + 83

-cz + 6z - tz = 83

Factor out z

z( -c+6-t) = 83

Divide each side by ( -c+6-t)

z( -c+6-t)/( -c+6-t)  = 83/( -c+6-t)

z = 83/( -c+6-t)

please help me in these question ????

A school bag contains 12 pens of which 5 are red and the other are black. 4 pens are selected from the bag.
(a) How many different samples of size 4 pens are possible?
(b) How many samples have 3 red pens and 1 black pen?
(c) How many samples of size 4 contain at least two red pens?
(d) How many samples of size 4 contain


If the average yield of cucumber acre is 800 kg, with a variance 1600 kg, and that the amount of the cucumber follows the normal distribution.
1- What percentage of a cucumber give the crop amount between and 834 kg?
2- What the probability of cucumber give the crop exceed 900 kg ?

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

A school bag contains 12 pens of which 5 are red and the other are black. 4 pens are selected from the bag.

(a) How many different samples of size 4 pens are possible?

12C4=12!/(4!*8!)=495

(b) How many samples have 3 red pens and 1 black pen?

5C3*7C1

5C3=5!/(3!*2!)=10

7C1=7!/(1!*6!)=7

=>5C3*7C1=10*7=70

(c) How many samples of size 4 contain at least two red pens?

(5C2*7C2)+(5C3*7C1)+(5C4*7C0)

5C2=5!/(2!*3!)=10

7C2=7!/(2!*5!)=21

5C3=5!/(3!*2!)=10

7C1=7!/(1!*6!)=7

5C4=5!/(4!*1!)=5

7C0=7!/(0!*7!)=1

=>(5C2*7C2)+(5C3*7C1)+(5C4*7C0)=285

(d) How many samples of size 4 contain at most one black pen?

(7C1*5C3)+(7C0*5C4)

7C1=7!/(1!*6!)=7

7C0=7!/(0!*7!)=1

5C3=5!/(3!*2!)=10

5C4=5!/(4!*1!)=5

=>(7C1*5C3)+(7C0*5C4)=(7*10)+(1*5)=75

What information do you need in order to determine the total distance Sam drives versus the actual displacement between his starting and ending points?

Answers

Answer:

  his path

Step-by-step explanation:

In order to determine the total distance driven from one place to another, you need to know the path taken.

The quotient of 3 and the cube
of y+2

Answers

Answer:

  [tex]\dfrac{3}{(y+2)^3}[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

Maybe you want this written using math symbols. It will be ...

  [tex]\boxed{\dfrac{3}{(y+2)^3}}[/tex]

Why is 12 * 10-8 is NOT a correct representation of scientific notation?

Answers

Answer:

see below

Step-by-step explanation:

Scientific notation is a * 10 ^b

a must be a number between 1 ( including 1 ) and less than 10

12 is greater than 10 so it is not scientific notation

Given there are 26 alphabets in the English language, how many possible three-letter words are there?

Answers

Answer: 17,576

We have 26 letters and 3 slots to fill. We can reuse a letter if it has been picked, so we have 26^3 = 26*26*26 = 17,576 different three letter "words". I put that in quotes because a lot of the words aren't actual words, but more just a sequence of letters.

help pls:Find all the missing elements

Answers

Step-by-step explanation:

Using Sine Rule

[tex] \frac{ \sin(a) }{ |a| } = \frac{ \sin(b) }{ |b| } = \frac{ \sin(c) }{ |c| } [/tex]

[tex] \frac{ \sin(42) }{5} = \frac{ \sin(38) }{a} [/tex]

[tex]a = \frac{5( \sin(38))}{ \sin(42) } [/tex]

[tex]a = 4.6[/tex]

[tex] \frac{ \sin(42) }{5} = \frac{ \sin(100) }{b} [/tex]

[tex]b= \frac{5( \sin(100))}{ \sin(42) } [/tex]

[tex]b = 7.4[/tex]

Consider various ways of ordering the letters in the word TENNESSEE. TENENESES, EESSENNET, TNNEESSEE, and so on. (a) How many distinguishable orderings are there

Answers

Answer:

3780.  

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this we will start by just considering the number of ways to arrange 9 objects. We can do this in  9!  ways.

However since we have 3 reoccurring letters in Tennessee namely n,s and e we need to remove the times these form the same arrangement. Let me give an example to show what this means. Lets say we have the arrangement:

ennetssee

Now what happens if we exchange the places of the letters n for example? Of course we get the same arrangement of letters. We don’t want to count these as 2 different arrangements since for our interests they are the same. We therefore divide  9!  by the number of times this type of double counting occurs.

Since the word has the letter n occurring twice we will start by diving by  2! .

The letter s occurs 2 times as well so we will have to divide by  2!  again.

Finally the letter e occurs 4 times and so we will have to divide by  4!  here.

Now we get the following result:

9/(2 x 2 x 4)=3780.  

So in conclusion there are 3780 different ways to arrange the letters in Tennessee.

Consider the differential equation:


2y'' + ty' − 2y = 14, y(0) = y'(0) = 0.


In some instances, the Laplace transform can be used to solve linear differential equations with variable monomial coefficients.


If F(s) = ℒ{f(t)} and n = 1, 2, 3, . . . ,then

ℒ{tnf(t)} = (-1)^n d^n/ds^n F(s)


to reduce the given differential equation to a linear first-order DE in the transformed function Y(s) = ℒ{y(t)}.


Requried:

a. Sovle the first order DE for Y(s).

b. Find find y(t)= ℒ^-1 {Y(s)}

Answers

(a) Take the Laplace transform of both sides:

[tex]2y''(t)+ty'(t)-2y(t)=14[/tex]

[tex]\implies 2(s^2Y(s)-sy(0)-y'(0))-(Y(s)+sY'(s))-2Y(s)=\dfrac{14}s[/tex]

where the transform of [tex]ty'(t)[/tex] comes from

[tex]L[ty'(t)]=-(L[y'(t)])'=-(sY(s)-y(0))'=-Y(s)-sY'(s)[/tex]

This yields the linear ODE,

[tex]-sY'(s)+(2s^2-3)Y(s)=\dfrac{14}s[/tex]

Divides both sides by [tex]-s[/tex]:

[tex]Y'(s)+\dfrac{3-2s^2}sY(s)=-\dfrac{14}{s^2}[/tex]

Find the integrating factor:

[tex]\displaystyle\int\frac{3-2s^2}s\,\mathrm ds=3\ln|s|-s^2+C[/tex]

Multiply both sides of the ODE by [tex]e^{3\ln|s|-s^2}=s^3e^{-s^2}[/tex]:

[tex]s^3e^{-s^2}Y'(s)+(3s^2-2s^4)e^{-s^2}Y(s)=-14se^{-s^2}[/tex]

The left side condenses into the derivative of a product:

[tex]\left(s^3e^{-s^2}Y(s)\right)'=-14se^{-s^2}[/tex]

Integrate both sides and solve for [tex]Y(s)[/tex]:

[tex]s^3e^{-s^2}Y(s)=7e^{-s^2}+C[/tex]

[tex]Y(s)=\dfrac{7+Ce^{s^2}}{s^3}[/tex]

(b) Taking the inverse transform of both sides gives

[tex]y(t)=\dfrac{7t^2}2+C\,L^{-1}\left[\dfrac{e^{s^2}}{s^3}\right][/tex]

I don't know whether the remaining inverse transform can be resolved, but using the principle of superposition, we know that [tex]\frac{7t^2}2[/tex] is one solution to the original ODE.

[tex]y(t)=\dfrac{7t^2}2\implies y'(t)=7t\implies y''(t)=7[/tex]

Substitute these into the ODE to see everything checks out:

[tex]2\cdot7+t\cdot7t-2\cdot\dfrac{7t^2}2=14[/tex]

The lengths of pregnancies in a small rural village are normally distributed with a mean of 265 days and a standard deviation of 14 days. In what range would we expect to find the middle 50% of most lengths of pregnancies

Answers

Answer:

the middle 50% of most lengths of pregnancies ranges between 255.62 days and 274.38 days

Step-by-step explanation:

Given that :

Mean  = 265

standard deviation = 14

The formula for calculating the z score is [tex]z = \dfrac{x -\mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

x = μ + σz

At middle of 50% i.e 0.50

The critical value for [tex]z_{\alpha/2} = z_{0.50/2}[/tex]

From standard normal table

[tex]z_{0.25}=[/tex] + 0.67  or -0.67  

So; when z = -0.67

x = μ + σz

x = 265 + 14(-0.67)

x = 265 -9.38

x = 255.62

when z = +0.67

x = μ + σz

x = 265 + 14 (0.67)

x = 265 + 9.38

x = 274.38

the middle 50% of most lengths of pregnancies ranges between 255.62 days and 274.38 days

10. A sample of 60 mutual funds was taken and the mean return in the sample was 13% with a standard deviation of 6.9%. The return on a particular index of stocks (against which the mutual funds are compared) was 11.5%. Therefore, the test statistic is 1.68. When testing the hypothesis that the average return on actively-managed mutual funds is higher than the return on an index of stocks, if the critical value is 1.96, what is your conclusion concerning the null hypothesis

Answers

Answer:

In this question, we shall be accepting the null hypothesis H0 since the critical value is greater than the test statistic value

Step-by-step explanation:

Here in this question, we want to make a conclusion about the null hypothesis H0.

To make or give the correct conclusion about the null hypothesis in this case, we shall need to compare the absolute value of the test statistic used against the value of the critical value.

Hence, we draw a conclusion if the test statistic is larger or smaller than the critical value.

From the value given in the question, we can see that the test statistic given as 1.68 is lesser in value compared to the critical value given as 1.96.

In this kind of case, the conclusion that we shall be drawing is that we will accept the null hypothesis H0 and reject the alternative hypothesis

If cot Theta = Two-thirds, what is the value of csc Theta? StartFraction StartRoot 13 EndRoot Over 3 EndFraction Three-halves StartFraction StartRoot 13 EndRoot Over 2 EndFraction Eleven-thirds

Answers

Answer:

csctheta= [tex]\frac{\sqrt{13} }{3}[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

answer is provided on top

The value of the [tex]\rm cosec \theta = \frac{\sqrt{13} }{3}[/tex]. Cosec is found as the ratio of the hypotenuse and the perpendicular.

What is trigonometry?

The field of mathematics is concerned with the relationships between triangles' sides and angles, as well as the related functions of any angle

The given data in the problem is;

[tex]\rm cot \theta = \frac{2}{3}[/tex]

The [tex]cot \theta[/tex] is found as;

[tex]\rm cot \theta = \frac{B}{P} \\\\ \rm cot \theta = \frac{2}{3} \\\\ B=2 \\\\ P=3 \\\\[/tex]

From the phythogorous theorem;

[tex]\rm H=\sqrt{P^2+B^2} \\\\ \rm H=\sqrt{2^2+3^2} \\\\ H=\sqrt{13} \\\\[/tex]

The value of the cosec is found as;

[tex]\rm cosec \theta = \frac{H}{P} \\\ \rm cosec \theta = \frac{\sqrt{13} }{3}[/tex]

Hence the value of the [tex]\rm cosec \theta = \frac{\sqrt{13} }{3}[/tex].

To learn more about the trigonometry refer to the link;

https://brainly.com/question/26719838

A major traffic problem in the Greater Cincinnati area involves traffic attempting to cross the Ohio River from Cincinnati to Kentucky using Interstate 75. Let us assume that the probability of no traffic delay in one period, given no traffic delay in the preceding period, is 0.9 and that the probability of finding a traffic delay in one period, given a delay in the preceding period, is 0.6. Traffic is classified as having either a delay or a no-delay state, and the period considered is 30 minutes.Required:a. Assume that you are a motorist entering the traffic system and receive a radio report of a traffic delay. What is the probability that for the next 60 minutes (two time periods) the system will be in the delay state?b. What is the probability that in the long run the traffic will not be in the delay state?c. An important assumption of the Markov process model presented here has been the constant or stationary transition probabilities as the system operates in the future. Do you believe this assumption should be questioned for this traffic problem? Explain.

Answers

Answer:

a) 0.36

b) 0.3

c) Yes

Step-by-step explanation:

Given:

Probability of no traffic delay in one period, given no traffic delay in the preceding period = P(No_Delay) = 0.9

Probability of finding a traffic delay in one period, given a delay in the preceding period = P(Delay) = 0.6

Period considered = 30 minutes

a)

Let A be the probability that for the next 60 minutes (two time periods) the system will be in the delay state:

As the Probability of finding a traffic delay in one period, given a delay in the preceding period is 0.6 and one period is considered as 30 minutes.

So probability that for the next two time periods i.e. 30*2 = 60 minutes, the system in Delay is

P(A) = P(Delay) * P(Delay) =  0.6 * 0.6 = 0.36

b)

Let B be the probability that in the long run the traffic will not be in the delay state.

This statement means that the traffic will not be in Delay state but be in No_Delay state in long run.

Let C be the probability of one period in Delay state given that preceding period in No-delay state :

P(C) =  1 - P(No_Delay)

        = 1 - 0.9

P(C) = 0.1

Now using P(C) and P(Delay) we can compute P(B) as:

P(B) = 1 - (P(Delay) + P(C))

      = 1 - ( 0.6 + 0.10 )

      = 1 - 0.7

P(B) = 0.3

c)

Yes this assumption should be questioned for this traffic problem because it implies that  traffic will be in Delay state for the 30 minutes and just after 30 minutes, it will be in No_Delay state. However, traffic does not work like this in general and it makes this scenario unrealistic. Markov process model can be improved if probabilities are modeled as a function of time instead of being presented as constant (for 30 mins).

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